| description abstract | his study investigates the classification of developing and nondeveloping tropical disturbances in the western North Pacific (WNP) through the C4.5 algorithm. A decision tree is built based on this algorithm and can be used as a tool to predict future tropical cyclone (TC) genesis events. The results show that the maximum 800-hPa relative vorticity, SST, precipitation rate, divergence averaged between 1000- and 500-hPa levels, and 300-hPa air temperature anomaly are the five most important variables for separating the developing and nondeveloping tropical disturbances. This algorithm also unravels the thresholds of the five variables (i.e., 4.2 ? 10?5 s?1 for maximum 800-hPa relative vorticity, 28.2°C for SST, 0.1 mm h?1 for precipitation rate, ?0.7 ? 10?6 s?1 for vertically averaged convergence, and 0.5°C for 300-hPa air temperature anomaly). Six rules are derived from the decision tree. The classification accuracy of this decision tree is 81.7% for the 2004?10 cases. The hindcast accuracy for the 2011?13 dataset is 84.6%. | |
