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contributor authorJohnson, Nathaniel C.
contributor authorCollins, Dan C.
contributor authorFeldstein, Steven B.
contributor authorL’Heureux, Michelle L.
contributor authorRiddle, Emily E.
date accessioned2017-06-09T17:36:28Z
date available2017-06-09T17:36:28Z
date copyright2014/02/01
date issued2013
identifier issn0882-8156
identifier otherams-87982.pdf
identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4231711
description abstractrevious work has shown that the combined influence of El Niño?Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden?Julian oscillation (MJO) significantly impacts the wintertime circulation over North America for lead times up to at least 4 weeks. These findings suggest that both the MJO and ENSO may prove beneficial for generating a seamless prediction link between short-range deterministic forecasts and longer-range seasonal forecasts. To test the feasibility of this link, wintertime (December?March) probabilistic 2-m temperature (T2m) forecasts over North America are generated solely on the basis of the linear trend and statistical relationships with the initial state of the MJO and ENSO. Overall, such forecasts exhibit substantial skill for some regions and some initial states of the MJO and ENSO out to a lead time of approximately 4 weeks. In addition, the primary ENSO T2m regions of influence are nearly orthogonal to those of the MJO, which suggests that the MJO and ENSO generally excite different patterns within the continuum of large-scale atmospheric teleconnections. The strong forecast skill scores for some regions and initial states confirm the promise that information from the MJO and ENSO may offer forecasts of opportunity in weeks 3 and 4, which extend beyond the current 2-week extended-range outlooks of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration?s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), and an intraseasonal link to longer-range probabilistic forecasts.
publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
titleSkillful Wintertime North American Temperature Forecasts out to 4 Weeks Based on the State of ENSO and the MJO
typeJournal Paper
journal volume29
journal issue1
journal titleWeather and Forecasting
identifier doi10.1175/WAF-D-13-00102.1
journal fristpage23
journal lastpage38
treeWeather and Forecasting:;2013:;volume( 029 ):;issue: 001
contenttypeFulltext


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