Evaluation of the Storm Prediction Center’s Day 1 Convective Outlooks

Abstract

he Storm Prediction Center has issued daily convective outlooks since the mid-1950s. This paper represents an initial effort to examine the quality of these forecasts. Convective outlooks are plotted on a latitude?longitude grid with 80-km grid spacing and evaluated using storm reports to calculate verification measures including the probability of detection, frequency of hits, and critical success index. Results show distinct improvements in forecast performance over the duration of the study period, some of which can be attributed to apparent changes in forecasting philosophies.