A Proposal for Analyzing and Forecasting Lower-Atmospheric Undular Bores in the Western Gulf of Mexico Region

Abstract

method is presented for analyzing and forecasting the occurrence of lower-atmospheric undular bores over the western and central Gulf of Mexico (GOM) and adjacent land areas using standard operational forecasting and analysis techniques. The method is based on research that has identified a set of sufficient conditions associated with these occurrences realized by observations of the phenomena in recent years and is grounded in the theoretical understanding of undular bores developed during the last century by fluid dynamicists. The approach discusses practical approximations to the theory that allows the operational forecaster to use output from standard numerical and statistical forecast models. In addition to providing an operational method for forecasting the time and location of occurrence, the technique provides a methodology for analyzing and anticipating the strength, forward speed, and horizontal wavelength of the phenomena.