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contributor authorZhang, Qin
contributor authorvan den Dool, Huug
date accessioned2017-06-09T17:35:51Z
date available2017-06-09T17:35:51Z
date copyright2012/08/01
date issued2012
identifier issn0882-8156
identifier otherams-87819.pdf
identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4231530
description abstractetrospective forecasts of the new NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) have been analyzed out to 45 days from 1999 to 2009 with four members (0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC) each day. The new version of CFS [CFS, version 2 (CFSv2)] shows significant improvement over the older CFS [CFS, version 1 (CFSv1)] in predicting the Madden?Julian oscillation (MJO), with skill reaching 2?3 weeks in comparison with the CFSv1?s skill of nearly 1 week. Diagnostics of experiments related to the MJO forecast show that the systematic error correction, possible only because of the enormous hindcast dataset and the ensemble aspects of the prediction system (4 times a day), do contribute to improved forecasts. But the main reason is the improvement in the model and initial conditions between 1995 and 2010.
publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
titleRelative Merit of Model Improvement versus Availability of Retrospective Forecasts: The Case of Climate Forecast System MJO Prediction
typeJournal Paper
journal volume27
journal issue4
journal titleWeather and Forecasting
identifier doi10.1175/WAF-D-11-00133.1
journal fristpage1045
journal lastpage1051
treeWeather and Forecasting:;2012:;volume( 027 ):;issue: 004
contenttypeFulltext


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