Gridded Operational Consensus Forecasts of 2-m Temperature over Australia

Abstract

his paper describes an extension of an operational consensus forecasting (OCF) scheme from site forecasts to gridded forecasts. OCF is a multimodel consensus scheme including bias correction and weighting. Bias correction and weighting are done on a scale common to almost all multimodel inputs (1.25°), which are then downscaled using a statistical approach to an approximately 5-km-resolution grid. Local and international numerical weather prediction model inputs are found to have coarse scale biases that respond to simple bias correction, with the weighted average consensus at 1.25° outperforming all models at that scale. Statistical downscaling is found to remove the systematic representativeness error when downscaling from 1.25° to 5 km, though it cannot resolve scale differences associated with transient small-scale weather.