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contributor authorFan, Yun
contributor authorvan den Dool, Huug
date accessioned2017-06-09T17:35:25Z
date available2017-06-09T17:35:25Z
date copyright2011/06/01
date issued2011
identifier issn0882-8156
identifier otherams-87707.pdf
identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4231406
description abstractsimple bias correction method was used to correct daily operational ensemble week-1 and week-2 precipitation and 2-m surface air temperature forecasts from the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS). The study shows some unexpected and striking features of the forecast errors or biases of both precipitation and 2-m surface air temperature from the GFS. They are dominated by relatively large-scale spatial patterns and low-frequency variations that resemble the annual cycle. A large portion of these forecast errors is removable, but the effectiveness is time and space dependent. The bias-corrected week-1 and week-2 ensemble precipitation and 2-m surface air temperature forecasts indicate some improvements over their raw counterparts. However, the overall levels of week-1 and week-2 forecast skill in terms of spatial anomaly correlation and root-mean-square error are still only modest. The dynamical soil moisture forecasts (i.e., land surface hydrological model forced with bias-corrected precipitation and 2-m surface air temperature integrated forward for up to 2 weeks) have very high skill, but hardly beat persistence over the United States. The inability to outperform persistence mainly relates to the skill of the current GFS week-1 and week-2 precipitation forecasts not being above a threshold (i.e., anomaly correlation > 0.5 is required).
publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
titleBias Correction and Forecast Skill of NCEP GFS Ensemble Week-1 and Week-2 Precipitation, 2-m Surface Air Temperature, and Soil Moisture Forecasts
typeJournal Paper
journal volume26
journal issue3
journal titleWeather and Forecasting
identifier doi10.1175/WAF-D-10-05028.1
journal fristpage355
journal lastpage370
treeWeather and Forecasting:;2011:;volume( 026 ):;issue: 003
contenttypeFulltext


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