| contributor author | Schwartz, Craig S. | |
| contributor author | Romine, Glen S. | |
| contributor author | Fossell, Kathryn R. | |
| contributor author | Sobash, Ryan A. | |
| contributor author | Weisman, Morris L. | |
| date accessioned | 2017-06-09T17:34:41Z | |
| date available | 2017-06-09T17:34:41Z | |
| date issued | 2017 | |
| identifier issn | 0027-0644 | |
| identifier other | ams-87452.pdf | |
| identifier uri | http://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4231123 | |
| description abstract | recipitation forecasts from convection-allowing ensembles with 3- and 1-km horizontal grid spacing were evaluated between 15 May and 15 June 2013 over central and eastern portions of the United States. Probabilistic forecasts produced from 10- and 30-member 3-km ensembles were consistently better than forecasts from individual 1-km ensemble members. However, 10-member, 1-km probabilistic forecasts usually produced the best forecasts, especially over the first 12 hours and at rainfall rates ≥ 5.0 mm/hr at later times. Further object-based investigation revealed that better 1-km forecasts at heavier rainfall rates were associated with more accurate placement of mesoscale convective systems compared to 3-km forecasts. The collective results indicate promise for 1-km ensembles once computational resources can support their operational implementation. | |
| publisher | American Meteorological Society | |
| title | Toward 1-km ensemble forecasts over large domains | |
| type | Journal Paper | |
| journal volume | 145 | |
| journal issue | 008 | |
| journal title | Monthly Weather Review | |
| identifier doi | 10.1175/MWR-D-16-0410.1 | |
| journal fristpage | 2943 | |
| journal lastpage | 2969 | |
| tree | Monthly Weather Review:;2017:;volume( 145 ):;issue: 008 | |
| contenttype | Fulltext | |
