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contributor authorSchwartz, Craig S.
contributor authorSobash, Ryan A.
date accessioned2017-06-09T17:34:39Z
date available2017-06-09T17:34:39Z
date issued2017
identifier issn0027-0644
identifier otherams-87449.pdf
identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4231119
description abstractNeighborhood approaches? have been used in two primary ways to post-process and verify high-resolution ensemble output. While the two methods appear deceptively similar, they in fact define events over different spatial scales and yield fields with different interpretations: the first produces probabilities interpreted as likelihood of event occurrence at the grid-scale, while the second produces probabilities of event occurrence over spatial scales larger than the grid-scale. Unfortunately, some studies have confused the two methods, while others did not acknowledge multiple possibilities of neighborhood approach application and simply stated, ?a neighborhood approach was applied? without supporting details. Thus, this paper reviews applications of neighborhood approaches to convection-allowing ensembles in hopes of clarifying the two methods and their different event definitions. Then, using real data, we demonstrate how the two approaches can yield statistically significantly different objective conclusions about model performance, underscoring the critical need for thorough descriptions of how neighborhood approaches are implemented and events are defined. We conclude by providing some recommendations for application of neighborhood approaches to convection-allowing ensembles.
publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
titleGenerating probabilistic forecasts from convection-allowing ensembles using neighborhood approaches: A review and recommendations
typeJournal Paper
journal volume145
journal issue009
journal titleMonthly Weather Review
identifier doi10.1175/MWR-D-16-0400.1
journal fristpage3397
journal lastpage3418
treeMonthly Weather Review:;2017:;volume( 145 ):;issue: 009
contenttypeFulltext


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