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contributor authorXie, Baoguo
contributor authorZhang, Fuqing
contributor authorZhang, Qinghong
contributor authorPoterjoy, Jonathan
contributor authorWeng, Yonghui
date accessioned2017-06-09T17:30:29Z
date available2017-06-09T17:30:29Z
date copyright2013/05/01
date issued2012
identifier issn0027-0644
identifier otherams-86440.pdf
identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4229998
description abstractn ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation system for the Weather Research and Forecasting Model is used with ensemble-based sensitivity analysis to explore observing strategies and observation targeting for tropical cyclones. The case selected for this study is Typhoon Morakot (2009), a western Pacific storm that brought record-breaking rainfall to Taiwan. Forty-eight hours prior to making landfall, ensemble sensitivity analysis using a 50-member convection-permitting ensemble predicts that dropsonde observations located in the southwest quadrant of the typhoon will have the highest impact on reducing the forecast uncertainty of the track, intensity, and rainfall of Morakot. A series of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) demonstrate that assimilating synthetic dropsonde observations located in regions with higher predicted observation impacts will, on average, lead to a better rainfall forecast than in regions with smaller predicted impacts. However, these OSSEs also suggest that the effectiveness of the current-generation ensemble-based tropical cyclone targeting strategies may be limited. The limitations may be due to strong nonlinearity in the governing dynamics of the typhoon (e.g., moist convection), the accuracy of the ensemble background covariance, and the projection of individual dropsonde observations to the complicated targeted sensitivity vectors from the ensemble.
publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
titleObserving Strategy and Observation Targeting for Tropical Cyclones Using Ensemble-Based Sensitivity Analysis and Data Assimilation
typeJournal Paper
journal volume141
journal issue5
journal titleMonthly Weather Review
identifier doi10.1175/MWR-D-12-00188.1
journal fristpage1437
journal lastpage1453
treeMonthly Weather Review:;2012:;volume( 141 ):;issue: 005
contenttypeFulltext


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