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contributor authorLewis, John M.
date accessioned2017-06-09T17:26:59Z
date available2017-06-09T17:26:59Z
date copyright2005/07/01
date issued2005
identifier issn0027-0644
identifier otherams-85496.pdf
identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4228949
description abstractThe generation of a probabilistic view of dynamical weather prediction is traced back to the early 1950s, to that point in time when deterministic short-range numerical weather prediction (NWP) achieved its earliest success. Eric Eady was the first meteorologist to voice concern over strict determinism?that is, a future determined by the initial state without account for uncertainties in that state. By the end of the decade, Philip Thompson and Edward Lorenz explored the predictability limits of deterministic forecasting and set the stage for an alternate view?a stochastic?dynamic view that was enunciated by Edward Epstein. The steps in both operational short-range NWP and extended-range forecasting that justified a coupling between probability and dynamical law are followed. A discussion of the bridge from theory to practice follows, and the study ends with a genealogy of ensemble forecasting as an outgrowth of traditions in the history of science.
publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
titleRoots of Ensemble Forecasting
typeJournal Paper
journal volume133
journal issue7
journal titleMonthly Weather Review
identifier doi10.1175/MWR2949.1
journal fristpage1865
journal lastpage1885
treeMonthly Weather Review:;2005:;volume( 133 ):;issue: 007
contenttypeFulltext


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