The Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclone Lili (1996) and Its Crucial Contribution to a Moderate Extratropical Development

Abstract

The transition that a tropical cyclone experiences as it moves into the extratropical environment (known as extratropical transition) can result in the decay or intensification of a baroclinic cyclone. The extratropical transition (ET) of Tropical Cyclone Lili (1996) in the North Atlantic resulted in a moderate extratropical development of a baroclinic cyclone. The impact of Lili in the extratropical development that occurred during its ET is investigated. Numerical experiments are performed using potential vorticity inversion and the Met Office Unified Model to forecast the extratropical development with and without the tropical cyclone in the initial conditions. In contrast with other case studies in the literature, Lili is shown to play a crucial role during its ET in the development of a baroclinic cyclone that occurred in the same region. A hypothesis of the possible scenarios of ET is presented that links the case-to-case variability of ET case studies in the literature with a classification of the life cycles of baroclinic cyclones.