Uncertainties of the Ocean Heat Content Estimation Induced by Insufficient Vertical Resolution of Historical Ocean Subsurface Observations

Abstract

ssessment of the upper-ocean (0?700 m) heat content (OHC) is a key task for monitoring climate change. However, irregular spatial and temporal distribution of historical subsurface observations has induced uncertainties in OHC estimation. In this study, a new source of uncertainties in calculating OHC due to the insufficiency of vertical resolution in historical ocean subsurface temperature profile observations was diagnosed. This error was examined by sampling a high-vertical-resolution climatological ocean according to the depth intervals of in situ subsurface observations, and then the error was defined as the difference between the OHC calculated by subsampled profiles and the OHC of the climatological ocean. The obtained resolution-induced error appeared to be cold in the upper 100 m (with a peak of approximately ?0.1°C), warm within 100?700 m (with a peak of ~0.1°C near 180 m), and warm when averaged over 0?700-m depths (with a global average of ~0.01°?0.025°C, ~1?2.5 ? 1022 J). Geographically, it showed a warm bias within 30°S?30°N and a cold bias at higher latitudes in both hemispheres, the sign of which depended on the concave or convex shape of the vertical temperature profiles. Finally, the authors recommend maintaining an unbiased observation system in the future: a minimal vertical depth bin of 5% of the depth was needed to reduce the vertical-resolution-induced bias to less than 0.005°C on global average (equal to Argo accuracy).