Use of Primitive-Equation Model Output to Forecast Winter Precipitation in the Northeast Coastal Sections of the United States

Abstract

The National Meteorology Center's operational primitive-equation multilayer model predictions of relative humidity and vertical velocity are found to be well correlated with relative frequency of observed precipitation in the northeast coastal section of the United States. A technique is presented for using these primitive-equation model predictions to objectively determine the probability of precipitation in each of three consecutive 12-hr periods, the first period starting 12 hr after initial data time.