Oppressive Heat Events in Illinois Related to Antecedent Wet Soils

Abstract

xtreme heat events have been connected with antecedent soil moisture in many global regions, such that dry soils increase sensible heat content of the near-surface atmosphere and impede precipitation through boundary layer growth. However, negative soil moisture?temperature feedbacks (dry soils = higher temperatures) are founded on investigations of maximum temperature that neglect the potentially important latent heating component provided by soil moisture. In this study, the association of spring soil moisture and subsequent summer oppressive heat events is quantified, defined by equivalent temperature. The advantage of equivalent temperature over maximum temperature is that it accounts for both the temperature and moisture components of atmospheric heat content. Quantile regression and composite analysis are used to determine the association between spring soil moisture and summer oppressive heat events using a 25-yr station observation record in Illinois. A consistent response of summer oppressive heat events to antecedent 5-cm soil moisture anomalies is found at all four stations. The frequency of oppressive summer equivalent temperature events is significantly increased following spring seasons with wetter-than-normal soils compared with spring seasons with dry soils. This provides evidence of a possible positive soil moisture?temperature feedback. Further, it is found that oppressive heat events correspond with the combination of wetter-than-normal spring soils and persistent summertime upper-level ridging to the northeast of the region, thereby leading to the conclusion that abundant-to-surplus spring soil moisture is necessary but not sufficient for the occurrence of oppressive heat in Illinois.