Tuning Extreme NEXRAD and CMORPH Precipitation Estimates

Abstract

igh-resolution satellite precipitation estimates, such as the Climate Prediction Center morphing technique (CMORPH), provide alternative sources of precipitation data for hydrological applications, especially in regions where adequate ground-based instruments are unavailable. These estimates are, however, subject to large errors, especially at times of heavy precipitation. This paper presents a method to distributionally convert a set of CMORPH estimates into ground-based Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) estimates. As our concern lies with floods and extreme precipitation events, a peaks-over-threshold extreme value approach is adopted that fits a generalized Pareto distribution to the large precipitation estimates. A quantile matching transformation is then used to convert CMORPH values into NEXRAD values. The methods are applied in the analysis of 6 yr of precipitation observations from 625 pixels centered around eastern Oklahoma.