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contributor authorMuñoz, Á. G.
contributor authorGoddard, L.
contributor authorMason, S. J.
contributor authorRobertson, A. W.
date accessioned2017-06-09T17:13:00Z
date available2017-06-09T17:13:00Z
date copyright2016/08/01
date issued2016
identifier issn0894-8755
identifier otherams-81225.pdf
identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4224205
description abstractotential and real predictive skill of the frequency of extreme rainfall in southeastern South America for the December?February season are evaluated in this paper, finding evidence indicating that mechanisms of climate variability at one time scale contribute to the predictability at another scale; that is, taking into account the interference of different potential sources of predictability at different time scales increases the predictive skill. Part I of this study suggested that a set of daily atmospheric circulation regimes, or weather types, was sensitive to these cross?time scale interferences, conducive to the occurrence of extreme rainfall events in the region, and could be used as a potential predictor. At seasonal scale, a combination of those weather types indeed tends to outperform all the other candidate predictors explored (i.e., sea surface temperature patterns, phases of the Madden?Julian oscillation, and combinations of both). Spatially averaged Kendall?s τ improvements of 43% for the potential predictability and 23% for real-time predictions are attained with respect to standard models considering sea surface temperature fields alone. A new subseasonal-to-seasonal predictive methodology for extreme rainfall events is proposed based on probability forecasts of seasonal sequences of these weather types. The cross-validated real-time skill of the new probabilistic approach, as measured by the hit score and the Heidke skill score, is on the order of twice that associated with climatological values. The approach is designed to offer useful subseasonal-to-seasonal climate information to decision-makers interested not only in how many extreme events will happen in the season but also in how, when, and where those events will probably occur.
publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
titleCross–Time Scale Interactions and Rainfall Extreme Events in Southeastern South America for the Austral Summer. Part II: Predictive Skill
typeJournal Paper
journal volume29
journal issue16
journal titleJournal of Climate
identifier doi10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0699.1
journal fristpage5915
journal lastpage5934
treeJournal of Climate:;2016:;volume( 029 ):;issue: 016
contenttypeFulltext


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