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contributor authorJiang, Zhihong
contributor authorLi, Wei
contributor authorXu, Jianjun
contributor authorLi, Laurent
date accessioned2017-06-09T17:12:05Z
date available2017-06-09T17:12:05Z
date copyright2015/11/01
date issued2015
identifier issn0894-8755
identifier otherams-81004.pdf
identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4223960
description abstractompared to precipitation extremes calculated from a high-resolution daily observational dataset in China during 1960?2005, simulations in 31 climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) have been quantitatively assessed using skill-score metrics. Four extreme precipitation indices, including the total precipitation (PRCPTOT), maximum consecutive dry days (CDD), precipitation intensity (SDII), and fraction of total rainfall from heavy events (R95T) are analyzed. Results show that CMIP5 models still have wet biases in western and northern China. Especially in western China, the models? median relative error is about 120% for PRCPTOT; the 25th and 75th percentile errors are of 70% and 220%, respectively. However, there are dry biases in southeastern China, where the underestimation of PRCPTOT reach 200 mm. The performance of CMIP5 models is quite different between western and eastern China. The simulations are more reliable in the east than in the west in terms of spatial pattern and interannual variability. In the east, precipitation indices are more consistent with observations, and the spread among models is smaller. The multimodel ensemble constructed from a selection of the most skillful models shows improved behavior compared to the all-model ensemble. The wet bias in western and northern China and dry bias over southeastern China are all decreased. The median of errors for PRCPTOT has a decrease of 69% and 17% in the west and east, respectively. The good reproduction of the southwesterlies along the east coast of the Arabian Peninsula is revealed to be the main factor explaining the improvement of precipitation patterns and extreme events.
publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
titleExtreme Precipitation Indices over China in CMIP5 Models. Part I: Model Evaluation
typeJournal Paper
journal volume28
journal issue21
journal titleJournal of Climate
identifier doi10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0099.1
journal fristpage8603
journal lastpage8619
treeJournal of Climate:;2015:;volume( 028 ):;issue: 021
contenttypeFulltext


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