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contributor authorYang, Xiaosong
contributor authorVecchi, Gabriel A.
contributor authorGudgel, Rich G.
contributor authorDelworth, Thomas L.
contributor authorZhang, Shaoqing
contributor authorRosati, Anthony
contributor authorJia, Liwei
contributor authorStern, William F.
contributor authorWittenberg, Andrew T.
contributor authorKapnick, Sarah
contributor authorMsadek, Rym
contributor authorUnderwood, Seth D.
contributor authorZeng, Fanrong
contributor authorAnderson, Whit
contributor authorBalaji, Venkatramani
date accessioned2017-06-09T17:11:06Z
date available2017-06-09T17:11:06Z
date copyright2015/05/01
date issued2015
identifier issn0894-8755
identifier otherams-80733.pdf
identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4223658
description abstracthe seasonal predictability of extratropical storm tracks in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory?s (GFDL)?s high-resolution climate model has been investigated using an average predictability time analysis. The leading predictable components of extratropical storm tracks are the ENSO-related spatial patterns for both boreal winter and summer, and the second predictable components are mostly due to changes in external radiative forcing and multidecadal oceanic variability. These two predictable components for both seasons show significant correlation skill for all leads from 0 to 9 months, while the skill of predicting the boreal winter storm track is consistently higher than that of the austral winter. The predictable components of extratropical storm tracks are dynamically consistent with the predictable components of the upper troposphere jet flow for both seasons. Over the region with strong storm-track signals in North America, the model is able to predict the changes in statistics of extremes connected to storm-track changes (e.g., extreme low and high sea level pressure and extreme 2-m air temperature) in response to different ENSO phases. These results point toward the possibility of providing skillful seasonal predictions of the statistics of extratropical extremes over land using high-resolution coupled models.
publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
titleSeasonal Predictability of Extratropical Storm Tracks in GFDL’s High-Resolution Climate Prediction Model
typeJournal Paper
journal volume28
journal issue9
journal titleJournal of Climate
identifier doi10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00517.1
journal fristpage3592
journal lastpage3611
treeJournal of Climate:;2015:;volume( 028 ):;issue: 009
contenttypeFulltext


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