The Seasonal Effects of ENSO on European Precipitation: Observational Analysis

Abstract

n analysis and characterization of seasonal changes in the atmospheric teleconnection between ENSO and western European precipitation, as well as atmospheric conditions over the North Atlantic and Europe, are presented. Significant ENSO-associated changes in precipitation are evident during the boreal spring and fall seasons, marginal during boreal summer, and absent during boreal winter. The spring and fall precipitation anomalies are accompanied by statistically significant ENSO-related changes in large-scale fields over the North Atlantic and Europe. These seasonal teleconnections appear to be mediated by changes in upper tropospheric conditions along the coast of Europe that project down to the lower troposphere and produce onshore or offshore moisture flux anomalies, depending on the season. Some ENSO-related changes in storm activity are also evident during fall and winter. Analyses during boreal winter reveal little effect of coincident ENSO conditions on either European precipitation or upper tropospheric conditions over Europe.