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contributor authorYang, Xiaosong
contributor authorRosati, Anthony
contributor authorZhang, Shaoqing
contributor authorDelworth, Thomas L.
contributor authorGudgel, Rich G.
contributor authorZhang, Rong
contributor authorVecchi, Gabriel
contributor authorAnderson, Whit
contributor authorChang, You-Soon
contributor authorDelSole, Timothy
contributor authorDixon, Keith
contributor authorMsadek, Rym
contributor authorStern, William F.
contributor authorWittenberg, Andrew
contributor authorZeng, Fanrong
date accessioned2017-06-09T17:06:29Z
date available2017-06-09T17:06:29Z
date copyright2013/01/01
date issued2012
identifier issn0894-8755
identifier otherams-79489.pdf
identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4222274
description abstracthe decadal predictability of sea surface temperature (SST) and 2-m air temperature (T2m) in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) decadal hindcasts, which are part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project experiments, has been investigated using an average predictability time (APT) analysis. Comparison of retrospective forecasts initialized using the GFDL Ensemble Coupled Data Assimilation system with uninitialized historical forcing simulations using the same model allows identification of the internal multidecadal pattern (IMP) for SST and T2m. The IMP of SST is characterized by an interhemisphere dipole, with warm anomalies centered in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre region and North Pacific subpolar gyre region, and cold anomalies centered in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current region. The IMP of T2m is characterized by a general bipolar seesaw, with warm anomalies centered in Greenland and cold anomalies centered in Antarctica. The retrospective prediction skill of the initialized system, verified against independent observational datasets, indicates that the IMP of SST may be predictable up to 4 (10) yr lead time at 95% (90%) significance level, and the IMP of T2m may be predictable up to 2 (10) yr at the 95% (90%) significance level. The initialization of multidecadal variations of northward oceanic heat transport in the North Atlantic significantly improves the predictive skill of the IMP. The dominant roles of oceanic internal dynamics in decadal prediction are further elucidated by fixed-forcing experiments in which radiative forcing is returned abruptly to 1961 values. These results point toward the possibility of meaningful decadal climate outlooks using dynamical coupled models if they are appropriately initialized from a sustained climate observing system.
publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
titleA Predictable AMO-Like Pattern in the GFDL Fully Coupled Ensemble Initialization and Decadal Forecasting System
typeJournal Paper
journal volume26
journal issue2
journal titleJournal of Climate
identifier doi10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00231.1
journal fristpage650
journal lastpage661
treeJournal of Climate:;2012:;volume( 026 ):;issue: 002
contenttypeFulltext


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