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contributor authorYokoi, Satoru
contributor authorTakayabu, Yukari N.
contributor authorMurakami, Hiroyuki
date accessioned2017-06-09T17:06:24Z
date available2017-06-09T17:06:24Z
date copyright2013/06/01
date issued2012
identifier issn0894-8755
identifier otherams-79481.pdf
identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4222265
description abstracthis paper performs an attribution analysis of future changes in the frequency of tropical cyclone (TC) passages over the western North Pacific basin projected by seven general circulation models. The models project increases in the passage frequency over the tropical central North Pacific and decreases in regions to the west and northwest, including East Asian countries. The attribution analysis reveals that while changes of the basinwide TC count would decrease the frequency of passages throughout the basin, the gross horizontal contrast in the passage frequency changes is caused by a projected eastward shift of main TC development regions, probably caused by El Niño?like sea surface temperature changes. The change in the frequency of passages is also caused by changes of TC translation vectors and preferable tracks. In particular, the translation vector would rotate clockwise to point in a more easterly direction over oceanic regions south of Japan, decreasing the passage frequency over the Korean peninsula and western Japan while increasing it over eastern Japan. This change in translation direction may be caused by the southward shift of the subtropical jet axis and resultant intensification of westerly steering flows. The El Niño?like change and westerly steering flow change are consistent not only among the seven models but also among a number of other climate models, which suggests the reliability of these results from the viewpoint of intermodel agreement.
publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
titleAttribution of Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone Passage Frequency over the Western North Pacific
typeJournal Paper
journal volume26
journal issue12
journal titleJournal of Climate
identifier doi10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00218.1
journal fristpage4096
journal lastpage4111
treeJournal of Climate:;2012:;volume( 026 ):;issue: 012
contenttypeFulltext


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