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contributor authorMallard, Megan S.
contributor authorLackmann, Gary M.
contributor authorAiyyer, Anantha
date accessioned2017-06-09T17:06:19Z
date available2017-06-09T17:06:19Z
date copyright2013/11/01
date issued2013
identifier issn0894-8755
identifier otherams-79458.pdf
identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4222240
description abstractmethod of downscaling that isolates the effect of temperature and moisture changes on tropical cyclone (TC) activity was presented in Part I of this study. By applying thermodynamic modifications to analyzed initial and boundary conditions from past TC seasons, initial disturbances and the strength of synoptic-scale vertical wind shear are preserved in future simulations. This experimental design allows comparison of TC genesis events in the same synoptic setting, but in current and future thermodynamic environments. Simulations of both an active (September 2005) and inactive (September 2009) portion of past hurricane seasons are presented.An ensemble of high-resolution simulations projects reductions in ensemble-average TC counts between 18% and 24%, consistent with previous studies. Robust decreases in TC and hurricane counts are simulated with 18- and 6-km grid lengths, for both active and inactive periods. Physical processes responsible for reduced activity are examined through comparison of monthly and spatially averaged genesis-relevant parameters, as well as case studies of development of corresponding initial disturbances in current and future thermodynamic conditions. These case studies show that reductions in TC counts are due to the presence of incipient disturbances in marginal moisture environments, where increases in the moist entropy saturation deficits in future conditions preclude genesis for some disturbances. Increased convective inhibition and reduced vertical velocity are also found in the future environment. It is concluded that a robust decrease in TC frequency can result from thermodynamic changes alone, without modification of vertical wind shear or the number of incipient disturbances.
publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
titleAtlantic Hurricanes and Climate Change. Part II: Role of Thermodynamic Changes in Decreased Hurricane Frequency
typeJournal Paper
journal volume26
journal issue21
journal titleJournal of Climate
identifier doi10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00183.1
journal fristpage8513
journal lastpage8528
treeJournal of Climate:;2013:;volume( 026 ):;issue: 021
contenttypeFulltext


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