“Eyeballing” Trends in Climate Time Series: A Cautionary Note

Abstract

In examining a plot of a time series of a scalar climate variable for indications of climate change, an investigator might pick out what appears to be a linear trend commencing near the end of the record. Visual determination of the starting time of the trend can lead to an incorrect conclusion that the trend is significant when the assessment is based on standard linear regression analysis; in fact, a presumed level of significance of 5% can be smaller than the actual level by up to an order of magnitude. An alternative procedure is suggested that is more appropriate for assessing the significance of a trend in which the starting point is identified visually.