Causal Evidence that Rotational Moisture Advection is Critical to the Superparameterized Madden–Julian Oscillation

Abstract

he authors investigate the hypothesis that horizontal moisture advection is critical to the eastward propagation of the Madden?Julian oscillation (MJO). Consistent diagnostic evidence has been found in recent MJO-permitting global models viewed from the moisture-mode dynamical paradigm. To test this idea in a causal sense, tropical moisture advection by vorticity anomalies is artificially modulated in a superparameterized global model known to produce a realistic MJO signal. Boosting horizontal moisture advection by tropical vorticity anomalies accelerates and amplifies the simulated MJO in tandem with reduced environmental gross moist stability. Limiting rotational horizontal moisture advection shuts the MJO down. These sensitivities are robust in that they are nearly monotonic with respect to the control parameter and emerge despite basic-state sensitivities favoring the opposite response. Speedup confirms what several diagnostic lines of evidence already suggest?that anomalous moisture advection is fundamental to MJO propagation. The rotational component is shown to be especially critical. Amplification further suggests it may play a role in adiabatically maintaining the MJO.