Impact of the Madden–Julian Oscillation on Wintertime Precipitation in Canada

Abstract

Based on the adjusted daily total precipitation data at Canadian stations and the Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) data during the most recent 30 Northern Hemisphere winters, the connection between the tropical convection of the Madden?Julian oscillation (MJO) and the intraseasonal variability of precipitation in Canada is investigated. The dominant convection patterns associated with the MJO are represented by the two leading modes of the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis that is applied to the pentad outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) in the equatorial Indian Ocean and western Pacific. The first EOF mode is characterized by a single convection center near the Maritime Continent, whereas the second EOF has an east?west dipole structure with enhanced precipitation over the Indian Ocean and reduced convective activity over the tropical western Pacific. Lagged regression analysis reveals significant precipitation anomalies in Canada associated with the tropical convection of the MJO. Above-normal precipitation starts to occur in the west coast of Canada one pentad after a positive EOF2 phase. In the next two pentads, positive precipitation anomalies extend to a large area of south Canada. At the same time, the northeast region experiences reduced precipitation. For strong MJO events when the principal component of EOF2 exceeds its standard deviation, the precipitation anomaly in the west coast of Canada can reach about 20%?30% of its standard deviation of pentad-to-pentad variability. A linearized global primitive equation model is utilized to assess the cause of the intraseasonal variability in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics and its influence on North American weather associated with the tropical heating of the MJO.