Regionalization in Fine-Grid GFS MOS 6-h Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts

Abstract

The recent emergence of the National Digital Forecast Database as the flagship product of the National Weather Service has resulted in an increased demand for forecast guidance products on fine-mesh grids. Unfortunately, fine-grid forecasts with geographically regionalized statistical models are usually plagued by nonmeteorological discontinuities at regional boundaries. This study treats the problem in a regionalized Global Forecast System (GFS)-based model output statistics (MOS) application that produces 6-h probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPFs) on a 4-km grid up to 192 h in advance. The technique involves incorporating areal overlap in the geographical regionalization and weighting multiple PQPFs in region-overlap zones. The degree of overlap ranges from about 20 km along meteorologically significant regional boundaries to about 150 km at quasi-arbitrary boundaries. The forecast-weighting constants for a grid point in an overlap zone vary in direct proportion to the distances to the closest associated regional boundaries. The application of the region-overlap and forecast-weighting techniques resulted in retention of sharp PQPF gradients along meteorologically significant regional boundaries and prevention of artificial discontinuities at quasi-arbitrary boundaries. The eradication of the discontinuities in the forecast patterns was achieved without sacrificing forecast skill. While the regionalization was customized for producing high-spatial-resolution 6-h PQPFs over the contiguous United States with a specialized gridded MOS application, the region-overlap and forecast-weighting techniques may have general applicability. Also, the quality of the 6-h PQPFs was not strongly dependent on customization of the regionalization.