| description abstract | The Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration?s (NOAA?s) National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, provides high-seas forecasts to portions of the eastern Pacific Ocean, including the Gulf of California. These forecasts include wind velocity and significant wave height forecasts and are initiated by forecast winds of at least 20 kt (10.3 m s?1) or significant wave heights of at least 8 ft (2.4 m). The Gulf of California is a commonly traveled area, where winds are highly modulated by nearby terrain variations. This provides a unique forecast challenge, especially in the absence of regular surface observations. In October and November 2008, the NOAA R/V David Starr Jordan was stationed in the Gulf of California and occasionally reported gale force winds [34?47 kt (17.5?24.2 m s?1)], which operational models regularly missed. A ship log of these events provided the basis for determining mean and anomaly fields for a handful of meteorological variables, from which a conceptual model for the synoptic-scale environment supporting these events is presented. An index based on the mean sea level pressure (MSLP) difference between Ely, Nevada, and Yuma, Arizona, was developed to measure the potential for gales, which was found to be statistically significant in discriminating between ?gale? and ?marginal wind? events. The fifth-generation NCAR?Pennsylvania State University Mesoscale Model (MM5) is used to conduct doubly nested high-resolution simulations centered on the Gulf of California. These simulations appeared to resolve the gales better than traditional global model guidance, lending credence toward the need for high-resolution modeling in areas of highly variable terrain. Relatively small errors were found in MM5 output using the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) data as verification. | |
