Show simple item record

contributor authorKirtman, Ben P.
contributor authorMin, Dughong
date accessioned2017-06-09T16:31:40Z
date available2017-06-09T16:31:40Z
date copyright2009/09/01
date issued2009
identifier issn0027-0644
identifier otherams-69447.pdf
identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4211117
description abstractResults are described from a large sample of coupled ocean?atmosphere retrospective forecasts during 1982?98. The prediction system is based on the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3.0), and a state-of-the-art ocean data assimilation system made available by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). The retrospective forecasts are initialized in January, April, July, and November of each year, and ensembles of 6 forecasts are run for each initial month, yielding a total of 408 1-yr predictions. In generating the ensemble members, perturbations are added to the atmospheric initial state only. The skill of the prediction system is analyzed from both a deterministic and a probabilistic perspective, it is then compared to the operational NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFS), and the forecasts are combined with CFS to produce a multimodel prediction system. While the skill scores for each model are highly dependent on lead time and initialization month, the overall level of skill of the individual models is quite comparable. The multimodel combination (i.e., the unweighted average of the forecast), while not always the most skillful, is generally as skillful as the best model, using either deterministic or probabilistic skill metrics.
publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
titleMultimodel Ensemble ENSO Prediction with CCSM and CFS
typeJournal Paper
journal volume137
journal issue9
journal titleMonthly Weather Review
identifier doi10.1175/2009MWR2672.1
journal fristpage2908
journal lastpage2930
treeMonthly Weather Review:;2009:;volume( 137 ):;issue: 009
contenttypeFulltext


Files in this item

Thumbnail

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record