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contributor authorMarshall, A. G.
contributor authorScaife, A. A.
contributor authorIneson, S.
date accessioned2017-06-09T16:29:51Z
date available2017-06-09T16:29:51Z
date copyright2009/12/01
date issued2009
identifier issn0894-8755
identifier otherams-68923.pdf
identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4210535
description abstractThe impact of explosive volcanic eruptions on the atmospheric circulation at high northern latitudes is assessed in two versions of the Met Office Hadley Centre?s atmospheric climate model. The standard version of the model extends to an altitude of around 40 km, while the extended version has enhanced stratospheric resolution and reaches 85-km altitude. Seasonal hindcasts initialized on 1 December produce a strengthening of the winter polar vortex and anomalous warming over northern Europe characteristic of the positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) when forced with volcanic aerosol following the 1963 Mount Agung, 1982 El Chichón, and 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruptions, as is observed. The AO signal in the extended model is of comparable strength to that in the standard model, showing that there is little impact from both increasing the vertical resolution in the stratosphere and extending the model domain to near the mesopause. The presence of this signal in the models, however, is likely due to the persistence of the observed signal from the initial conditions, because a similar set of experiments initiated with the same conditions, but with no volcanic aerosol forcing, exhibits a similar response as the forced runs. This suggests that the model has limited fidelity in capturing the response to volcanic aerosols on its own, consistent with previous studies on the impact of volcanic forcing in long climate simulations, but does support the premise that seasonal winter forecasts are substantially improved with the inclusion of stratospheric information.
publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
titleEnhanced Seasonal Prediction of European Winter Warming following Volcanic Eruptions
typeJournal Paper
journal volume22
journal issue23
journal titleJournal of Climate
identifier doi10.1175/2009JCLI3145.1
journal fristpage6168
journal lastpage6180
treeJournal of Climate:;2009:;volume( 022 ):;issue: 023
contenttypeFulltext


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