Economic Gains from Scientific Advances and Operational Improvements in Meteorological Prediction

Abstract

Long range plans for national and international economic improvements are vitally affected by the influence of weather and climate. It is therefore of interest to examine the magnitude of potential economic gains which may result from meteorological research. In this paper a preliminary study is made of the relative economic gains in weather prediction which may be achieved through further basic scientific studies in meteorology as well as through more operationally-oriented research. Considering the economic model used and sample predictions analyzed, the results suggest that average potential gains are strikingly uniform, ranging from five to ten per cent of the protectable weather losses.