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contributor authorWedam, Garrett B.
contributor authorMcMurdie, Lynn A.
contributor authorMass, Clifford F.
date accessioned2017-06-09T16:27:06Z
date available2017-06-09T16:27:06Z
date copyright2009/06/01
date issued2009
identifier issn0882-8156
identifier otherams-68099.pdf
identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4209619
description abstractDespite recent advances in numerical weather prediction, major errors in short-range forecasts still occur. To gain insight into the origin and nature of model forecast errors, error frequencies and magnitudes need to be documented for different models and different regions. This study examines errors in sea level pressure for four operational forecast models at observation sites along the east and west coasts of the United States for three 5-month cold seasons. Considering several metrics of forecast accuracy, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model outperformed the other models, while the North American Mesoscale (NAM) model was least skillful. Sea level pressure errors on the West Coast are greater than those on the East Coast. The operational switch from the Eta to the Weather Research and Forecasting Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (WRF-NMM) at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) did not improve forecasts of sea level pressure. The results also suggest that the accuracy of the Canadian Meteorological Centre?s Global Environmental Mesoscale model (CMC-GEM) improved between the first and second cold seasons, that the ECMWF experienced improvement on both coasts during the 3-yr period, and that the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) improved during the third cold season on the West Coast.
publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
titleComparison of Model Forecast Skill of Sea Level Pressure along the East and West Coasts of the United States
typeJournal Paper
journal volume24
journal issue3
journal titleWeather and Forecasting
identifier doi10.1175/2008WAF2222161.1
journal fristpage843
journal lastpage854
treeWeather and Forecasting:;2009:;volume( 024 ):;issue: 003
contenttypeFulltext


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