Examination of Relationships between Clear-Sky Longwave Radiation and Aspects of the Atmospheric Hydrological Cycle in Climate Models, Reanalyses, and Observations

Abstract

Relationships between clear-sky longwave radiation and aspects of the atmospheric hydrological cycle are quantified in models, reanalyses, and observations over the period 1980?2000. The robust sensitivity of clear-sky surface net longwave radiation (SNLc) to column-integrated water vapor (CWV) of 1?1.5 W m?2 mm?1 combined with the positive relationship between CWV and surface temperature (Ts) explains substantial increases in clear-sky longwave radiative cooling of the atmosphere (QLWc) to the surface over the period. Clear-sky outgoing longwave radiation (OLRc) is highly sensitive to changes in aerosol and greenhouse gas concentrations in addition to temperature and humidity. Over tropical ocean regions of mean descent, QLWc increases with Ts at ?3.5?5.5 W m?2 K?1 for reanalyses, estimates derived from satellite data, and models without volcanic forcing included. Increased QLWc with warming across the tropical oceans helps to explain model ensemble mean increases in precipitation of 0.1?0.15 mm day?1 K?1, which are primarily determined by ascent regions where precipitation increases at the rate expected from the Clausius?Clapeyron equation. The implications for future projections in the atmospheric hydrological cycle are discussed.