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contributor authorChen, Dake
contributor authorYuan, Xiaojun
date accessioned2017-06-09T16:22:58Z
date available2017-06-09T16:22:58Z
date copyright2004/08/01
date issued2004
identifier issn0894-8755
identifier otherams-6686.pdf
identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4208244
description abstractA linear Markov model has been developed to simulated and predict the short-term climate change in the Antarctic, with particular emphasis on sea ice variability. Seven atmospheric variables along with sea ice were chosen to define the state of the Antarctic climate, and the multivariate empirical orthogonal functions of these variables were used as the building blocks of the model. The predictive skill of the model was evaluated in a cross-validated fashion, and a series of sensitivity experiments was carried out. In both hindcast and forecast experiments, the model showed considerable skill in predicting the anomalous Antarctic sea ice concentration up to 1 yr in advance, especially in austral winter and in the Antarctic dipole regions. The success of the model is attributed to the domination of the Antarctic climate variability by a few distinctive modes in the coupled air?sea?ice system and to the model's ability to detect these modes. This model is presently being used for the experimental seasonal forecasting of Antarctic sea ice, and a current prediction example is presented.
publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
titleA Markov Model for Seasonal Forecast of Antarctic Sea Ice
typeJournal Paper
journal volume17
journal issue16
journal titleJournal of Climate
identifier doi10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<3156:AMMFSF>2.0.CO;2
journal fristpage3156
journal lastpage3168
treeJournal of Climate:;2004:;volume( 017 ):;issue: 016
contenttypeFulltext


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