| description abstract | Meso-beta-scale numerical model simulations and observational data are synthesized in an effort to develop a multistage paradigm for use in forecasting tornadic convection in the southeastern United States. The case study to be utilized as an example of the multistage sequence of events is the Palm Sunday 1994 outbreak, which culminates with the development of an unbalanced mesoscale jet streak or jetlet that focuses a given region for significant values of low-level vertical wind shear, low-level confluence and vertical vorticity, midtropospheric cooling, and storm-relative helicity. The five-stage paradigm includes 1) the existence of a jet exit region accompanying a deep balanced thermally indirect circulation south of the outbreak and a return branch ageostrophic low-level southerly jet, both typically accompanying the subtropical jet stream and the leading edge of hot continental air; 2) the existence of a jet entrance region accompanying a deep balanced thermally direct circulation north of the outbreak and a return branch ageostrophic low-level northerly jet, both typically accompanying the polar jet stream and the leading edge of rain-cooled air; 3) the geostrophic adjustment of the wind in the southern jet to the emerging/intensifying mass field perturbation, that is, intensification of the cross-stream mesoscale pressure gradient force, caused by the juxtaposition of the rain-cooled air southeast of the polar front and hot air accompanying the continental front where evaporational cooling as well as surface heating merge resulting in unbalanced jetlet formation; 4) the low-level mass adjustment underneath the new mesoscale midtropospheric unbalanced jetlet induces a return branch low-level unbalanced jetlet as well as vertical motion patterns oriented along the stream; and 5) adiabatic cooling ahead of the unbalanced jetlet and sinking behind it accompanying the along-stream vertical circulation increases the intensity of downstream destabilization and upstream downward momentum fluxes, producing a favorable environment for severe convection. This new synoptic/dynamical overview assigns added importance to the subtropical jet, defines the continental air front, and also defines the unbalanced jetlet for use in predicting the presevere storm environment. | |
