Analysis and Prediction of Lightning Strike Distributions Associated with Synoptic Map Types over Florida

Abstract

The temporal and spatial distributions of lightning activity associated with specific synoptic regimes of low-level wind flow were analyzed as part of an experiment to develop improved statistical thunderstorm forecasts for Florida. The synoptic regimes were identified by means of a linear correlation technique that was used to perform pattern classification or ?map typing? of 18- and 30-h sea level pressure forecasts from the National Meteorological Center's Nested Grid Model (NGM). Lightning location data for the 1987?90 warm seasons were subsequently analyzed on a 12-km grid to determine the thunderstorm distribution for each of the predetermined map types. The analysis revealed organized coastal maxima in lightning activity related to land-sea-breeze convergence zones that form in direct response to the low-level wind flow. Surface effects were also indicated by the persistent minima in lightning activity over Lake Okeechobee and by the lightning maxima found in regions with shoreline curvature favoring localized convergence. Experimental thunderstorm probability equations for Florida were subsequently developed from climatological lightning frequencies and NGM forecast fields. The lightning frequencies were combined with the K stability index to form interactive predictors that take into account the temporal and spatial variations in lightning occurrence for each map type but modulate the climatology in response to the daily large-scale synoptic situation. The statistical forecast equations were developed for each map type in an attempt to simulate the effects of small-scale processes, such as land-sea-breeze convergence zones, on the subsequent development of peninsular-scale convection.