Sensitivity of Tropical Storm Forecast to Radiative Destabilization

Abstract

This paper examines the medium-range forecast of a typhoon using a global model. The focus of this study is on a comparison of two longwave radiative transfer calculations, one is based on an emissivity formulation while the other utilizes a band model. A more realistic prediction of low clouds in the storm environment by the band model leads to stronger cooling rates and the resulting destabilization contributes to the maintenance of conditional instability. The inflowing air supplies this instability for the maintenance of a longer-lasting storm. The emissivity model fails to predict a sufficient abundance of low clouds resulting in weaker cooling rates hence the resulting destabilization is weak and leads to decay of the storm. The important role of radiatively active shallow clouds in maintaining the conditional instability of the storm environment is illustrated for a long-range integration. An analysis of these aspects of storm environment destabilization is presented in this paper.