AN EIGHT-YEAR EXPERIMENT IN IMPROVING FORECASTS OF HURRICANE MOTION

Abstract

The National Hurricane Center and the National Hurricane Research Laboratory joined forces in an effort to improve techniques for forecasting hurricane motion in the spring of 1959 when the latter moved its headquarters from West Palm Beach to Miami into offices adjacent to those occupied by the principal hurricane forecast office in the United States. Results now available from verification of forecasts made during the period 1954 through 1966 show that there has been a significant improvement in the accuracy of hurricane forecasts during the period of increased cooperation between the research and operational forecasting groups. This improvement is indicated by a reduction in the mean error of hurricane forecasts of approximately 10 and 12 percent, respectively, for the two principal hurricane forecast areas near the eastern coasts of the United States.