Probability of Future Climatically Significant Volcanic Eruptions

Abstract

A number of climate model predictions indicate that the global average temperature should rise another 0.1°?0.3°C in the next 10?15 yr, thereby rising above the noise level of natural variability. However, volcanic eruptions could mask the CO2 effect and complicate discussions on a greenhouse gas protocol. The authors quantify this possibility by creating a volcano eruption probability density function from a 600-yr-long record of Northern Hemisphere eruptions. Results indicate that there is a substantial probability of one or two eruptions with a radiative impact greater than ?1 W m?2 (≈37% and 15%, respectively) in the next decade, and a 15%?25% chance of a single large eruption (?3 W m?2 or greater).