Using the Southern Oscillation to Forecast Texas Winter Wheat and Sorghum Crop Yields

Abstract

Time series models are used to examine the impact of Southern Oscillation (SO) extreme events in estimating and forecasting Texas sorghum and winter wheat yields. It is shown that a significant correlation between the SO events and yield does not necessarily translate into better forecasts. Including SO events in forecasting yields decreases the forecasts mean squared error for winter wheat, but has no significant impact on sorghum forecasts. The most important factor impacting yields over the dataset length (1876?1993 for wheat and 1924?92 for sorghum) is technological change. This change is more important for the period after World War II. Examining the dataset by periods, before rapid technology change and after, indicates the SO impacts crop yields differently between periods.