Internal Versus SST-Forced Atmospheric Variability as Simulated by an Atmospheric General Circulation Model

Abstract

The variability of atmospheric flow is analyzed by separating it into an internal part due to atmospheric dynamics only and an external (or forced) part due to the variability of sea surface temperature forcing. The two modes of variability are identified by performing an ensemble of seven independent long-term simulations of the atmospheric response to observed SST (1970?1988) with the LMD atmospheric general circulation model. The forced variability is defined from the analysis of the ensemble mean and the internal variability from the analysis of deviations from the ensemble mean. Emphasis is put on interannual variability of sea level pressure and 5OO-hPa geopotential height for the Northern Hemisphere winter. In view of the large systematic errors related to the relatively small number of realizations, unbiased variance estimators have been developed. Although statistical significance is not reached in some extratropical regions, large significant extratropical responses are found at the North Pacific-Alaska sector for SLP and over western Canada and the Aleutians for 5OO-hPa geopotential height. The influence of SST variations on internal variability is also examined by using a 7-year simulation using the climatological SST seasonal cycle. It is found that interannual SST changes strongly influence the geographical distribution of internal variability; in particular, it tends to increase it over oceans. Patterns of internal and external variability of the 5OO-hPa geopotential height are further examined by using EOF decompositions showing that the model realistically simulates the leading observed variability modes. The geographical structure of internal variability patterns is found to be similar to that of total variability, although similar modes tend to evolve rather differently in time. The zonally symmetric seesaw dominates the internal variability for both observed and climatologically prescribed SST. The Pacific-North American (PNA) and Western Pacific (WP) patterns, on the other hand, are the dominant modes associated with patterns of SST variability: the latter is related to Atlantic anomalies, while the former responds to both El Niño events and extratropical forcing.