Refined Supercell and Tornado Forecast Parameters

Abstract

This note updates a previous study that utilized a baseline climatology of soundings associated with large hail, significant tornadoes, and 10 or more cloud-to-ground lightning flashes from 1992. Expanding on the earlier analysis, it is shown that three modified forecast parameters have more value in distinguishing between environments that favor significant tornadoes and those that favor large hail but no significant tornadoes, in the climatological data. These parameters are storm-relative helicity in the 0?1-km layer adjacent to the ground, energy?helicity index computed from this measure of helicity, and the convective available potential energy that accrues from the surface to 3 km above ground level. In addition, this note provides caveats regarding the interpretation of the climatological findings.