Maximum Potential Intensities of Tropical Cyclones near Isla Socorro, Mexico

Abstract

The maximum potential intensity (MPI) of a tropical cyclone represents a theoretical upper limit to the strength of the storm imposed by the laws of physics and the energy available to the system in the atmosphere and the ocean. The MPI in this study was computed using a method in which the cyclone is assumed to consist of the environment, an eyewall, and an eye. Calculation of the MPI requires a vertical sounding of temperature, the surface pressure, and the surface air temperature. The soundings used in this study were taken at Isla Socorro, Mexico, during the period 1994?97. The MPIs were compared to the minimum surface pressures for seven tropical cyclones that passed near Isla Socorro. The MPI provided an accurate indication of the potential for the atmosphere to support the intensification of a tropical cyclone. The thermodynamically based MPI also proved to be superior to an SST-based MPI.