Comments on “An Operational Ingredients-Based Methodology for Forecasting Midlatitude Winter Season Precipitation”

Abstract

Wetzel and Martin present an ingredients-based methodology for forecasting winter season precipitation. Although they are to be commended for offering a framework for winter-weather forecasting, disagreements arise with some of their specific recommendations. In particular, this paper clarifies the general philosophy of ingredients-based methodologies and shows how the methodology presented by Wetzel and Martin has the potential to be misinterpreted by their choice of diagnostics (including their PVQ and the so-called traditional techniques) and their use of cloud microphysics. Given that winter-weather forecasts are imperfect at present, this paper advocates continued exploration of scientifically based forecasting techniques.