Verification of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System Forecasts: A Study of Large-Scale Patterns

Abstract

The aim of this work is the evaluation of some basic measures of skill of the Ensemble Prediction System used operationally at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Probabilistic forecasts for the occurrence of predefined flow patterns are analyzed and validated throughout the 10-day forecast range. The weather regimes used as fixed patterns are those defined by Vautard for the 700-hPa geopotential height and used during the field phase of the Fronts and Atlantic Storm-Track Experiment as a component in the planning of the intense observing periods. The evaluation of the ensemble forecasts is performed for three cold seasons, from 1996 to 1999, using the Brier score and the related skill score. In this case the sample climate and a simple probabilistic forecast (poor man's ensemble) have been used as reference forecasts. The results show a positive skill with respect to the reference forecasts up to the 240-h time step.