| description abstract | A diagnostic evaluation of three project ANOMALIA case studies involving heavy precipitation in the western Mediterranean region has been carried out. The evaluation shows the unique characteristics of each event, as well as some limited similarities. Heavy precipitation events in the western Mediterranean region typically occur downstream of a significant cyclone aloft (often, but not always, exhibiting ?cutoff? cyclone characteristics), but important structural and evolutionary differences are found among these cases. At low levels, a long fetch of flow over the Mediterranean Sea frequently interacts with terrain features to produce persistent heavy precipitation. Although most heavy precipitation events occur during the fall season, they can develop at other times. In the first case, the synoptic-scale environment produced low static stability and substantial storm-relative environmental helicity, thereby supporting both heavy rain in the vicinity of Valencia on mainland Spain and on Ibiza in the Balearic Islands, as well as a tornado at Menorca in the Balearic Islands on 7?9 October 1992. The second case involved a slow-moving cyclone that destabilized the stratification and produced several days of heavy precipitation over the period 31 January?6 February 1993. In the third case, in the Italian Piedmont region on 5?6 November 1994, the heavy precipitation included a nonconvective component, with moist but relatively stable air impinging on steep terrain gradients. A set of basic diagnostic tools is applied to the cases, and it is shown that anything but a superficial diagnosis of each case requires flexibility in selecting diagnostic tools. The ways by which heavy precipitation is created can vary substantially from case to case and in different parts of the world; however, there is a common thread. Heavy precipitation is the result of moist, low-level air ascending rapidly, so any diagnosis aimed at forecasting heavy precipitation needs to address the following: vertical motion, static stability, moisture supply, and orographic effects (when appropriate). Forecasting implications of the cases are discussed, with the emphasis on considering these physically relevant processes. | |
