On the Skill and Utility of NMC's Medium-Range Central Guidance

Abstract

Verification scores are presented to illustrate the general success of NMC forecasters in providing the best day 3,4, and 5 mean sea level pressure and 6?10-day mean 500-mb height fields given the operationally available array of often conflicting NWP model solutions. As a primer on NMC efforts to enhance the utility of the medium-range forecast guidance, a brief overview is provided on the rationale and expectations for ensemble prediction.