Complexity and Predictability of Hourly Precipitation

Abstract

Recent studies have shown how concepts from information theory can be applied to climate models to better understand the problem of climate prediction. This paper describes how information theory, specifically the concept of entropy, can be used in the analysis of short-term precipitation records. The ideas are illustrated through analysis and comparisons of two long, hourly precipitation records. From the results it is concluded that the records are not periodic and are definitely more complex than records of random origin. This complexity, however, arises from underlying deterministic rules indicating the potential for predictability.