A Stochastic Model of Cumulus Clumping

Abstract

Observations show that cumulus clouds often occur in long-lived mesoscale groups, or clumps. Five possible explanations of clumping are surveyed. The ?mutual protection hypothesis,? that clumps occur because cumulus clouds create and maintain, in their near environments, relatively favorable conditions for the development of succeeding clouds, is examined at length. This idea is tested through the use of a simple time-dependent model in which clouds, triggered at randomly selected locations, tend to stabilize their environment in the face of a prescribed constant forcing. Results show that clumping occurs when the cloud-induced stabilization rate is strongest at an intermediate distance from a cloud, and that it does not occur when the stabilization rate decreases monotonically away from a cloud.