Upper Bounds for Forecast Errors I: Theory

Abstract

A method is given for predicting errors in numerical weather forecasts due to imprecise knowledge of frictional constants, heating, and initial conditions. It is assumed that error bounds are known for these quantities. Given a measure of forecast error, it is shown that it is possible to find the maximum for this error for all admissible parameter settings by solving a two-point boundary value problem. The method yields the maximum error and the parameter setting which induces this error.